The Asteroid Game

 “By failing to prepare, you are preparing to fail.”

— Benjamin Franklin

It’s a presidential election year here in America...which means it’s time for a near-collision asteroid event! I know they occur more than we’d like to admit (the asteroids, anyway). We have ever-vigilant government agencies keeping watch: NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL), the Center for Near Earth Object Studies (CNEOS), and the Planetary Defense Coordination Office (PDCO). All of which host websites allowing us to track the size and distance of approaching asteroids. Media about asteroids hitting earth has long been and continues to remain a science fiction staple. Such a situation really doesn’t figure into games, unless it causes the cataclysm in some post-apocalyptic roleplaying game setting. But the PAXsims blog recently reported on tabletop exercises (TTXs) NASA conducted to help organizations prepare for and respond to an asteroid strike on earth. This kind of activity falls into the category of “serious games” used to explore outcomes of hypothetical conditions and events, the type of simulation governments use for a variety of purposes. The Planetary Defense Interagency Tabletop Exercise provides an insightful model for how such serious games can enable a variety of audiences simulate non-warfare crises.

Presidential elections in America have, regrettably, become almost apocalyptic occasions these days, with candidates making dire predictions if voters, the Electoral College, or the Supreme Court choose their opponent. Certainly the threat of one candidate and his cronies dismantling democracy in America overshadows the performative outrage over inflated culture war “issues” (an avalanche of lies I will not amplify by repeating here). These elections also inspire a host of humorous candidate merchandise and memes, notably some people’s preference to end it already and campaign for an asteroid to hit the earth and put us all out of this miserable descent into fascism. And inevitably, as the election approaches, the indifferent universe happens to send some well-publicized near-collision asteroid news hurtling our way.

It comes as no surprise that, less than two months before the American presidential election, the vigilant scientists at NASA announced another asteroid coming in for a near miss; “620,000 miles (1 million kilometers) — about 2.6 times the distance between the Moon and Earth.” Such news seems almost common these days primarily because NASA’s watching the solar system for incoming threats to our planet. Goodness knows how many near misses we had before we possessed the capability, budget, and commitment to watching the skies?

Credits: NASA/JHU-APL/Ed Whitman 

But it’s not just telescopes and technology. NASA’s conducted several TTXs to game out our response in the event we actually do experience an asteroid impact on earth. The space agency recently announced it ran the fifth biennial Planetary Defense Interagency Tabletop Exercise with the intent “to inform and assess our ability as a nation to respond effectively to the threat of a potentially hazardous asteroid or comet.” (Meaning they’ve been running these TTXs since before the covid-19 pandemic began four years ago.) The exercise convenes experts and stakeholders in person and virtually to consider responses to such scenarios, staged at key points in the developing event timeline, such as six months from the chance an asteroid would hit earth, then two months out, six days beforehand, and finally upon the impact itself. As a government agency ultimately answerable to the American public, NASA dutifully released a host of interesting online resources* related to these exercises:

* A “Quick-Look Report” summarizing the most recent exercise, participants, objectives, and findings (as well as subsequent action plans).

* An after-action report from the 2022 TTX.

* A host of resources from the 2022 TTX: read-ahead materials, a CNEOS orbit viewer, links to NASA YouTube videos about asteroids, and various presentations providing slides outlining each stage of the TTX (peruse the top-of-post tabs to access Modules 0-4 and the final report).

These last resources can prove useful to others seeking to adapt these exercises for educational purposes and might even provide inspiration for creating simulations addressing other emerging near-future issues. They’re just the latest in a trend of government and think-tank sponsored TTXs and matrix games seeking to draw on experts to explore complex concerns through simulations. Recent serious games explored the outcomes of an emergent dictatorship in America, how some might respond to a certain candidate winning or losing, and how tensions in different regions might escalate (and how we might best respond). News articles about these events have become so relatively common I’ve lost track of them. They gather experts and stakeholders to discuss the intricately complex systems affecting particular issues, mapping out possible causes and examining responses. Most use some kind of organized structure when playing out developing situations. The increasing prevalence and visibility of these TTXs is a boon for those advocating for wargame simulations to explore outcomes to imminent real-world crises.

Most agencies and contractors customize these exercises to their needs, but many rely on recent developments in the field of “matrix games.” Although the term initially referred to two-player matrix games in game theory, it also represents a field of somewhat freeform games using different formats to represent factions, personalities, and forces in play centered on a particular issue. “In a Matrix Game you simply use words to describe why something should happen, the Umpire decides how likely it is, and you roll a dice,” states Major Tom Mouat on his Matrix Games web page (an excellent starting point to explore this game format). “If you can say ‘This happens, for the following reasons...’ you can play a Matrix Game.” Mouat’s website looks at numerous aspects of these games, including ways to frame arguments for actions succeeding or failing and different kinds of conflict resolution methods to help move events forward. It merges concepts from roleplaying games, negotiating games like Diplomacy, and Model United Nations-style simulations and further refines them in a TTX-style format to explore different issues.

Besides Mouat’s Matrix Games web page, John Curry’s prolific History of Wargames Project includes several matrix game titles in the “Professional Wargaming” catalog. Each book’s webpage includes downloadable resources for counters, handouts, and other helpful aids. I have an earlier version of Advanced Matrix Games for Modern Wargaming and, if my older edition is any indication, this volume proves a solid starting point to explore the matrix game format (the book’s website also includes a list of linked resources for “Academic References for Matrix games”).

We can rest easy that, despite the remote chances of an asteroid having a catastrophic impact on earth, America’s space agencies remain ever-vigilant. They take proactive steps to explore the possibilities should such an event actually occur and help other organizations consider the ramifications and responses to such a disaster. I believe these game simulations can’t predict the future, but help us prepare for it by exploring different outcomes from the crises we face and our responses to them.

If government agencies and think-tanks believe TTXs and matrix games are valuable tools to analyze near-future issues, surely they have value — in some form — as learning tools to help people explore and understand issues in history and other fields. Publications from these TTXs and matrix game resources provide some examples and inspiration for enhancing education beyond the ordinary classroom experience.

“Yesterday is not ours to recover, but tomorrow is ours to win or lose.”

— Lyndon B. Johnson

Postscript:

If you have any interest in serious games like TTXs or matrix games and the people who design and run them, I highly recommend following the PAXsims blog for the latest news, developments, and commentary on this wargaming field.

*You know you’re in serious game territory when simulation materials carry warnings that these materials do not refer to a real-world event like an imminent asteroid strike: “This webpage does not describe a real potential asteroid impact. The information on this page is fictional and provided only to support an emergency response exercise....” Likewise the “read ahead” material in handy PDF files carries warnings at the top and bottom of each page in red type: “EXERCISE EXERCISE EXERCISE This is a simulated event.” (Warnings like these always remind me of the notation on the front of the German version of the Paranoia roleplaying game’s second edition box: “Actung Satire!”)