Discerning Reality in the Fog of War

“Many intelligence reports in war are contradictory; even more are false, and most are uncertain.”

— Carl von Clausewitz

Games remain excellent learning tools to help train our minds to estimate the situation presented by the current game state and devise a course of action to pursue on our next turn. People use these skills of observation, collation, and evaluation all the time in various everyday situations. Some make a career out of it, like intelligence analysts, military commanders, and political decision makers. Others take a more carefully considered approach to make decisions in their everyday lives: how to find a job and whether to take one offered; how to use one’s finances to best improve one’s situation; how to proceed on an academic or career path; how to approach and resolve interpersonal conflicts. Games offer a “safe-to-fail” environment in which to practice our observational and decision-making skills, but the real world often remains unrelentingly merciless when we make mistakes. But too often the “fog of war” hinders our ability to clearly discern the reality of various situations. And while games can help hone our skills in evaluating factors in our decisions to move forward, the real world presents us with far too many uncertainties, biases, and even “bad players” intent on distorting and influencing our perception of the situation.

Exploring Outcomes & Inaction

 “There are risks and costs to action. But they are far less than the long range risks of comfortable inaction.”

— John F. Kennedy

My estimation of serious simulation “wargames” — like tabletop exercises (TTXs) and matrix games — has deteriorated in the past 18 months. Many seek to explore outcomes of various emerging issues with an eye toward affecting policy or future action. These rarely achieve any objective on their own beyond educated speculation how different elements affect the situation and where various actions lead, even with post-game discussion; their success and impact requires subsequent, meaningful action to put the conclusions to any effect in real-world policy. And I don’t see that happening against the overwhelmingly indifferent filter of societal and institutional bureaucracy. The past few years we’ve seen several political simulations, some more tabletop exercises than wargame-adjacent matrix games, intended to “game out” what might happen with various developments in American politics. Many came to presciently frightening conclusions. But this kind of simulation means nothing if participants don’t use what they learned to affect policy moving forward.

The Asteroid Game

 “By failing to prepare, you are preparing to fail.”

— Benjamin Franklin

It’s a presidential election year here in America...which means it’s time for a near-collision asteroid event! I know they occur more than we’d like to admit (the asteroids, anyway). We have ever-vigilant government agencies keeping watch: NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL), the Center for Near Earth Object Studies (CNEOS), and the Planetary Defense Coordination Office (PDCO). All of which host websites allowing us to track the size and distance of approaching asteroids. Media about asteroids hitting earth has long been and continues to remain a science fiction staple. Such a situation really doesn’t figure into games, unless it causes the cataclysm in some post-apocalyptic roleplaying game setting. But the PAXsims blog recently reported on tabletop exercises (TTXs) NASA conducted to help organizations prepare for and respond to an asteroid strike on earth. This kind of activity falls into the category of “serious games” used to explore outcomes of hypothetical conditions and events, the type of simulation governments use for a variety of purposes. The Planetary Defense Interagency Tabletop Exercise provides an insightful model for how such serious games can enable a variety of audiences simulate non-warfare crises.

Modern Crisis Wargaming

 “Tomorrow belongs to those who can hear it coming.”

— David Bowie

I don’t usually promote Kickstarter campaigns for games, even ones I admire or back. A recent entry, however, demonstrates the value of wargames as tools to explore real-world issues. Usually we look back in time, examining conflicts from history with lots of established (and sometimes debated) research from which to draw information when crafting these simulation models. Professionals in the political/military sphere employ wargames to explore existing, developing, and future situations and possible outcomes. Sebastian Bae — a USMC veteran, wargaming consultant, and adjunct assistant professor at Georgetown University — stands as one of the more visible designers at the forefront of this movement. Catastrophe Games is running a Kickstarter to produce Bae’s Crisis in Korea, a set of two “micro games” allowing players to examine the heightening tensions in that region. Both KTO Crisis and Loose Nukes promise to introduce current-issue wargames to a wider audience, from hobby wargamers and students to military and political professionals.

Gaming for Peace

“I believe that we are here for each other, not against each other. Everything comes from an understanding that you are a gift in my life – whoever you are, whatever our differences.”

– John Denver

Russia invaded Ukraine last week amid a global pandemic, persistent supply chain issues, economic uncertainty, and continued politically fueled anger in America. Not exactly a time to sit around playing games. But just before the Russian invasion I learned of an interesting international training project, the prototype, computer-based Gaming for Peace (GAP) that intends to teach military peacekeepers “soft skills” focusing on building trust, teamwork, cultural awareness, and helpful communication. According to the website, GAP is “new training curricula for enhancing the preparedness and skills of personnel for conflict prevention and peace keeping missions.” I gave it a try. It seemed to me an exercise not only in building soft skills but in broadening one’s experience in empathizing with others, both those on your team and those you’re helping. Working with others for peace, compassion, and greater understanding seems like something the world needs a bit more of right now.