“There are risks and costs to action. But they are far less than the long range risks of comfortable inaction.”
— John F. Kennedy
My estimation of serious simulation “wargames” — like tabletop exercises (TTXs) and matrix games — has deteriorated in the past 18 months. Many seek to explore outcomes of various emerging issues with an eye toward affecting policy or future action. These rarely achieve any objective on their own beyond educated speculation how different elements affect the situation and where various actions lead, even with post-game discussion; their success and impact requires subsequent, meaningful action to put the conclusions to any effect in real-world policy. And I don’t see that happening against the overwhelmingly indifferent filter of societal and institutional bureaucracy. The past few years we’ve seen several political simulations, some more tabletop exercises than wargame-adjacent matrix games, intended to “game out” what might happen with various developments in American politics. Many came to presciently frightening conclusions. But this kind of simulation means nothing if participants don’t use what they learned to affect policy moving forward.





