Near-Future Simulation Radar

 “By failing to prepare, you are preparing to fail.”

— Benjamin Franklin

I try keeping my internet radar active searching for news about games. I comb a few news venues and numerous social media accounts to hear how people use games for learning, to find new and interesting titles reaching the market; and read about more mainstream use of serious “wargames” to explore outcomes in near-future conflicts. Games can offer abstract models of how our world works — for education, entertainment, analysis — and institutions of all kinds explore their applications. Two near-future conflicts stand out in my search for news about simulations exploring their outcomes: the upcoming American mid-term congressional elections and the looming threat of Russian action against eastern European nations. My internet radar’s picking up very little, if anything, about the former and plenty about the latter. The former perhaps reflects a lack of faith by American institutions in such exercises reaching useful conclusions and implementing strategies to respond to them. The latter seems not only driven by continued threats from Russia and its war against Ukraine but a result of decreased American influence on the world stage.

(Apologies to those expecting lighter game-related fare from me. I occasionally delve into the relevance of games in the greater spheres of our lives, and in this case the relevance of wargames to more serious issues.)

America’s careening toward another pivotal government election on Nov. 3, not quite as consequential as a presidential election, but close. We’re choosing representatives and senators to send to congress which many hope will act to slow the massive erosion of democracy we’ve seen in the past two years, stabilize the chaotic economy (and the factors contributing to that), and stop some of the more egregious practices an increasingly authoritarian regime has perpetrated against people here (too many to list, but I’ll highlight abductions by aggressive and anonymous domestic security forces and dehumanizing incarcerations in concentration camps). In the past I’ve discussed some of the think-tank simulations leading up to important American presidential elections, often tabletop exercises (TTXs) by knowledgeable experts exploring outcomes and responses. Perhaps we’re not seeing news of such serious games because this isn’t a presidential election year. Maybe some, like me, are simply weary that findings from such exercises have little impact among those in the halls of power who might take effective action. And possibly we’re not seeing any news items as mainstream media continues its bias against reporting anything to displease their masters.

Past exercises explored what might happen in a second Donald Trump presidency, how he might act toward NATO, how the nation might descend into a civil war. Those simulations explored various outcomes with some notable areas to watch as situations developed; but overall few took any recommendations and acted on them. Perhaps the most striking aspect of the second Trump term is how he and his minions dismantled bureaucratic infrastructure and upended established, beneficial policies at all levels, ignoring and deriding accepted norms and unspoken courtesies of government administration...the “move fast and break things” approach. Few could have foreseen such developments on a massive scale. Fewer still could have developed effective responses. Most responses as situations developed consisted of reactive grassroots efforts and laboriously slow court filings, which have, thankfully, made some positive differences (when the executive branch deigns to respect the courts ruling against it).

So I fear, given our nation’s experience two years ago, we’re not going to see any serious games exploring the many issues surrounding possible change should Trump’s party lose power in congress. Plenty of questions loom in the weeks ahead. How could official institutions under Trump’s control discourage voters opposed to their agenda? What kinds of elections interference or efforts to de-legitimize votes and candidates might we see? How might Republicans prevent new Democratic representatives from taking their place in the legislature? How might Trump twist the criminal justice process to sideline or eliminate opponents (we’re already seeing this in the Department of Justice vendetta against Minnesota representative Ilhan Omar)? All questions with the follow-on discussion about how to effectively respond to these tactics. And who knows what unknown developments and outcomes might erupt in an unpredictable political climate in an unstable democratic society? It doesn’t seem like anyone’s really examining the issues — at least with serious game simulations — as we continue reeling from one crisis to another and scurry to respond to every new leak in the dam of democracy.

In contrast I’m seeing news stories and social media posts about European institutions simulating possible scenarios with an aggressive Russia. Although I’ve watched serious wargaming take a greater hold across all sectors of the American military and bureaucratic landscape, I’ve also become more aware of increased foreign efforts to use such simulations to explore emerging issues they face...quite possibly as a response to American unpredictability on the global stage. Universities, military institutions, and think tanks across Europe are networking their serious gaming professionals to share and advance their knowledge of how wargames might better inform policy toward emerging conflicts.

Ukraine uses Tom Jensen's Ukraine 2022
wargame to train students about the battlefield.

Just this week Sky News reported on a recent “crisis simulation” in Vilnius, Lithuania, exploring outcomes of a possible uprising in the Russian exclave of Kaliningrad (which occupies a strange geographical position detached from mainland Russia much like East Prussia was detached from Germany after World War I...ironic since Kaliningrad, formerly Koenigsberg, was part of East Prussia). It’s the latest in a series of social media posts and news stories I’ve seen about European and NATO efforts to take matters into their own hands in preparing for future conflict. They face the same bureaucratic resistance to new, untested methods like serious wargaming, but it seems the culture is slowly changing. I’d estimate, given European nations’ far smaller military bureaucracies than America’s, that they might be better able and more inclined to evaluate outcomes explored in these exercises and implement some plans to respond to them should they emerge in the near future.

Following the PAXsims blog helps keep me aware of news about various nations and institutions examining issues surrounding future conflicts through serious gaming and discussion. Professor Brynen’s also involved in cultivating a new generation of serious wargamers through his POLI 425 Conflict Simulation course at McGill University (in which the course materials offer some solid resources for beginners). My social media feeds include frequent posts by people in the European serious wargaming field highlighting their efforts, both their individual work and material shared at conferences and wargame events.

I expect American serious wargaming efforts will continue even amid the biases and constraints of the present administration at the Department of Defense, including the latest development to include a “Joint Warfighter Evaluation” (JWE) wargame component as part of its process selecting officers for promotion to general and flag ranks. Military officers and think-tank analysts continue working to use wargames to train personnel and analyze strategies. They have a better chance of affecting the future than institutions and experts without the authority or influence to make meaningful preparations for future outcomes.

Whether American voters elect representatives willing and able to return some stable normalcy to our domestic and foreign policies — and whether Trump takes more drastic measures to stop anyone from limiting his authoritarian power — European institutions forge ahead using serious wargames to improve their readiness to meet future conflicts with or without American assistance. Although much of such news on my radar relates to military threats, I am vaguely aware that other groups, notably in the academic sphere, have and continue to explore other environmental, political, and social issues through serious gaming. European nations realize the last two years demonstrated our past allies cannot reliably depend on America as an active and beneficial partner in numerous aspects of democratic society. Serious gaming will continue exploring outcomes of near-future issues and better inform both long-term policy and decisions, in different ways, in both American and Europe. Wherever the future takes us.

“Be Prepared... the meaning of the motto is that a scout must prepare himself by previous thinking out and practicing how to act on any accident or emergency so that he is never taken by surprise.”

— Robert Baden-Powell